WILLEMSTAD/PHILIPSBURG – In its September 2026 Economic Bulletin, the Centrale Bank van Curaçao en Sint Maarten (CBCS) expects growth to continue across the monetary union in 2026 and 2027, albeit at a more moderate pace than in recent years. Real GDP in Curaçao is projected to grow by 2.8%, while Sint Maarten’s economy is expected to expand by 3.1% in 2026. While fiscal positions are expected to remain stable, inflation is projected to rise moderately in Curaçao and Sint Maarten, reflecting ongoing external pressures. The outlook remains subject to considerable external uncertainty, including geopolitical tensions, trade fragmentation, and the potential pass-through of higher commodity prices and transportation costs to domestic inflation.
A strong start amid shifting external conditions
According to the CBCS’s latest estimates, both economies began 2026 on a positive trajectory, underpinned primarily by tourism, as stay-over and cruise arrivals boosted activity in hospitality, trade, and transport. In 2027, both economies are expected to continue along broadly similar growth and fiscal paths, although economic growth will moderate as the strong post-pandemic rebound eases.
Curaçao’s economy is projected to moderate over the coming years, with real GDP growth slowing from 2.8% in 2026 to 2.3% in 2027. The 2026 forecast represents an upward revision of 0.1 percentage point compared to the June 2026 forecast. Growth will be supported by both domestic and net foreign demand, reflecting strong tourism performance and continued private investment in tourism and real estate projects. In addition, net foreign demand is expected to contribute more positively to economic growth than previously projected as export growth in real terms is expected to outpace the rise in imports. On the fiscal front, Curaçao’s current budget surplus is projected to increase from 3.1% of GDP in 2025 to 3.3% in 2026 and remain at that level in 2027. Meanwhile, the debt-to-GDP ratio is projected to continue to decline, reaching 59.7% by 2026, reflecting a higher nominal GDP level, before increasing to 60.7% in 2027 due to additional borrowing for capital investments.
Economic growth in Sint Maarten is also expected to ease, slowing from 3.1% in 2026 to 2.5% in 2027. This marks an upward revision of 0.5 percentage points compared to the previous forecast
in June. Growth will be supported mainly by robust cruise and stay-over arrivals and new private investments in residential and commercial projects. Sint Maarten’s current budget surplus is expected to strengthen to 1.2% of GDP in 2026 and 1.5% in 2027. The public debt ratio is projected to decline steadily from 39.2% in 2026 to 38.4% in 2027, as nominal GDP growth more than offsets additional borrowing for public investment.
Inflation is projected to rise in both countries in 2026, reflecting mainly higher international oil prices and transportation costs related to developments in the Middle East and the expected pass through to domestic fuel, electricity, and transportation prices. In Curaçao, inflation is projected to increase to 2.5% in 2026, while Sint Maarten’s inflation is expected to rise to 2.8%. In 2027, inflation is projected to ease moderately to 2.4% and 2.3% in Curaçao and Sint Maarten, respectively, broadly in line with expected developments in international oil prices, transportation costs, and inflation trends among key trading partners.
Trade tensions cloud the outlook, while regional opportunities emerge
While the outlook remains favorable, the balance of risks remains tilted to the downside amid an increasingly uncertain global environment. Since the June 2026 projections, global trade tensions have become a more prominent source of uncertainty. Although Curaçao and Sint Maarten are not directly exposed to most tariff measures, the indirect effects on tourism demand, imported inflation, investment, and global economic activity could affect the monetary union.
Risks associated with the ongoing conflict in the Middle East remain significant. Further disruptions in energy markets or global shipping routes could result in higher transportation and import costs, adding to inflationary pressures and weighing on growth. At the same time, there are also potential upside developments in the region. A further normalization of economic relations with Venezuela could create new opportunities for Curaçao, particularly given its strategic location and its existing infrastructure. Additionally, an improvement in economic conditions in Venezuela could gradually strengthen regional trade and travel flows.
The complete text of the September 2026 Economic Bulletin is available on the CBCS website at https://www.centralbank.cw/publications/economic-bulletins/2026
