Chinese presence has grown, but there is little evidence of stronger Chinese state influence
On Tuesday, 6 October, the new research report Chinese Presence and Geopolitical Resilience in the Caribbean Parts of the Kingdom of the Netherlands will be published and presented. The study examines Chinese presence in Aruba, Bonaire, Curaçao, Saba, St. Eustatius and St. Maarten, and uses this analysis to identify broader vulnerabilities and opportunities to strengthen geopolitical and economic resilience.
Chinese presence in the islands has grown over recent decades, particularly through migration, entrepreneurship and private economic activity. At the same time, the study finds little evidence that Chinese state influence has increased substantially. A key principle throughout the report is therefore the distinction between presence and influence: economic or societal presence does not automatically imply political or state-directed influence.
The analysis also shows that, as small and open island economies, the islands depend strongly on external actors in areas including imports, energy, digital infrastructure, logistics, tourism and security. The report therefore looks beyond China alone and provides practical directions for strengthening resilience, including better understanding and diversifying dependencies, strengthening information-sharing and oversight, and enhancing cooperation within the Kingdom while respecting the different responsibilities and autonomy of the countries and public entities.
The research was conducted within the China Knowledge Network by researchers from Clingendael in collaboration with locally based researchers and researchers with extensive Caribbean expertise. It draws on 43 interviews with stakeholders, including policymakers, business owners, members of the Chinese community and representatives of public and private organisations. These local perspectives were essential for placing formal data and broader geopolitical developments in their specific island context.
Presentation
Tuesday, 6 October 2026
15:30–17:00 Netherlands time / 09:30–11:00 Caribbean time
The Hague and online
The report will be presented by Raoul Bunskoek, Tobias Koster, Simone van der Zee, Renske Pin and Luc Alofs.
Registration for the presentation: https://lnkd.in/e5gHPP_4
Following the presentation, the full research report will be available for download from www.chinakennisnetwerk.nl/library
Photo by Bent Van Aeken on Unsplash
