Update 2:00AM Aug 2nd: TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK

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NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT TUE AUG 2 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A strong tropical wave over the central Caribbean Sea, located about
150 miles south-southwest of Kingston, Jamaica, continues to move
quickly westward at about 20 mph.

Recent satellite data indicate that the system is producing winds of 40 to 45 mph,
but that it still appears to lack a closed surface circulation.
Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for additional development,
and a tropical storm is likely to form later today.  An Air Force
Reserve Reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the
system this morning.

Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds,
perhaps to tropical storm force, will continue over portions of Jamaica this
morning and reach the Cayman Islands later today.

Interests in these areas and elsewhere in the western Caribbean Sea should continue
to monitor the progress of this disturbance.

For additional information, see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be
found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and on
the Web at http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml.

Forecaster Beven

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