Special Bulletin #15 UPDATE: …JERRY STILL POSES A FLOODING RISK FOR ST. MAARTEN…

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…A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ST. MAARTEN…

..A SMALL CRAFT/HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ST. MAARTEN..

DATE ISSUED: Friday, September 20, 2019
TIME ISSUED: 05:30 PM (21:30 UTC)

…JERRY STILL POSES A FLOODING RISK FOR ST. MAARTEN…

Location: Lat. 19.6 N, Lon. 62.0 W
About: 129 miles…208 km ENE of St. Maarten
Maximum sustained winds: 80 mph…130 km/h
Present Movement: WNW…295 degrees at 18 mph…30 km/h
Minimum Central Pressure: 991 mb…29.27 inches

DISCUSSION AND 24-HOUR OUTLOOK
Hurricane Jerry is weaker is still a Category 1 hurricane, moving toward the west-northwest near 18 mph (30 km/h).

On the forecast track, the center of Jerry is expected to pass approximately 120 miles to the north of St. Maarten within the next hour. Effects of Jerry on St. Maarten are expected to be mainly in rainfall and sea swells throughout the night.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some weakening is forecast overnight, but Jerry could re-strengthen early next week.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km).z

Residents and the general public are advised to continue being alert and monitor the progress of Jerry.

The Meteorological Department of St. Maarten will continue to monitor and issue special weather bulletins.

POTENTIAL IMPACTS FOR ST. MAARTEN:
Rainfall: Jerry is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 1 to 3 inches. Increasing cloudiness with showers and thunderstorms are expected through the night. Most of the significant showers are expected overnight into Saturday. Flooding and/or rock slides can be expected in flood-prone areas and along hillsides. Residents and users of these areas are advised to be vigilant.

Winds: Gusty winds could accompany showers tonight through Saturday.
Seas: Swells up to 12 feet are possible during the passage of Hurricane Jerry, mainly along the northern and eastern shores. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Beach erosion is possible in vulnerable areas. Sea-bathers are advised to stay away from the sea during the passage of Jerry.